Tuesday, October 12, 2004
Shark Tale Not a Disaster- But Swimming in Shallow Water
The ANNOTICO Report

Shark Tale, after a $47 million Gross the first weekend, dove 34.2% to $31.3 million, the second weekend, despite increasing the number of theaters by 54%, from 2642 to 4070.

The Total Gross thus far (two weekends and the week in between) is $87 million (less the 35% Distribution Costs) to be compared to it's Production Cost of $75 million (plus the Marketing Costs that vary from 25% -150%, and DreamWorks looked like it was pulling out ALL stops, to over come VERY Mixed Reviews.

In the top spot, Shark Tale showed an easing of 34% to $31.3 million, bringing the $70 million DreamWorks picture's 10-day haul to $87.4 million. Though most movies these days seem to drop 50% in their second weekend, it's not uncommon for computer animated family fare to hold up well. Among titles that did not benefit from holidays in their sophomore sessions, Ice Age fell 35% (for a similar $87.3 million 10-day tally en route to $176.4 million), Finding Nemo dropped 34% and Monsters, Inc. slipped just 27%.

DreamWorks' exit polling showed the audience was predictably comprised mostly of families -- 60%, same as Shrek 2 -- and 30% was under 12 years old. Among children, gender was split evenly between male and female, but over the age of 12 it skewed female, 60/40.

Shark Tale had the advantage of opening against very light weight competition that will continue for two more weeks, when then it will then face Disney/Pixar's The Incredibles (Nov 5th) further crowded with such family movies as The Polar Express (Nov. 10) and The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie (Nov. 19).

Current Competition consists of:
 

Friday Night Lights is about the Permian Panthers, the Odessa, TX high school team displayed spirit on its opening weekend, tackling $20.3 million at 2,667 theaters Featuring Billy Bob Thornton and his Sling Blade co-star Lucas Black, the $30 million drama based on H.G. Bissinger's book of the same name scored the third biggest opening ever for a football picture. Moviegoers in general liked Friday Night Lights as 91% rated it "excellent" or "very good," and 64% (against a norm of 55%) would definitely recommend it. Story was the top reason cited to see the picture, followed by football, the action and its true story basis.
 

The Queen Latifah-Jimmy Fallon vehicle Taxi didn't fare too well, collecting $12.0 million at 3,001 locations. Although the 20th Century Fox remake of Luc Besson's 1998 French production of the same name carried a modest budget in the mid-$20 million range.

Raise Your Voice earned an off-key $4.0 million at 2,521 theaters. Star Hilary Duff suffered her first miss after four hits in a row (Agent Cody Banks, The Lizzie McGuire Movie, Cheaper by the Dozen, A Cinderella Story).

Falling a modest 41%, Buena Vista's Ladder 49 rang up $13.1 million, lifting its total to $41.0 million after 10 days. The Joaquin Phoenix-John Travolta firefighter drama is working as adult counter-programming to Shark Tale.

In the New York Times article below, there is a putting of the best possible face on a disappointing situation. As you see by the numbers cited above, regardless of the "crowing" DreamWorks indulges in, Shark Tale that at one time was expected to be a "blockbuster" rivaling "Shrek 2", in order to launch the DreamWorks IPO, backed off when CARRES (prompted by Italic Insitute, and directed by Dona DeSanctis) mounted an Anti -Bigotry campaign.

Even if Shark Tale hits the $176 million of "Ice Age", after Production, Distribution, and Marketing costs, it will be only a modest success, and ONLY 20% of the $877 million of Shrek 2's Gross, which DreamWorks was originally hoping to exceed, to get it's IPO off to a Rousing Start. The IPO now is going to require a "road show", rather than have the offering immediately multiply Oversubscribed!!!!

All you "Shark Tale" Harpooners take solace that you have not slain the Shark, But you severely wounded it!!!!  Congratulations!!

This was a Collaborative effort that deserves to be the first of Many. This is NOT a one Battle War!!!!
 



Thanks to Dominic Tassone, Mobolito.com
AFTER A HIT, DREAMWORKS AIMS AT WALL STREET
New York Times
By Laura M. Holson
October 12, 2004

LOS ANGELES, Oct. 11 - Buoyed by the success of the animated film "Shark Tale," executives for DreamWorks Animation will begin meeting with investors this week in a bid to sell shares to the public...

Jeffrey Katzenberg, the animation unit's chief executive... is expected to leave... on a roadshow for the company's IPO (initial public offering), with the hope of selling shares by late October or early November...

...DreamWorks SKG executives expect to raise as much as $650 million in the sale.

The offering would allow the company's founders - Steven Spielberg, David Geffen and Mr. Katzenberg - and its original backers to recoup some of their $1.1 billion (booty).

"DreamWorks has been unusually quiet about'' the offering, (Hmmm, I wonder why:) . "But it seems they plan to ride the coattails of the excitement and profitability of the genre.''

... The executives had discussed holding the offering before the release of "Shark Tale," but they were concerned with two issues regarding the timing: how healthy the stock market was and how the computer-animated movie would fare....

"Shark Tale" since opening on Oct. 1, the movie has earned $87.7 million according to the Internet site www.boxofficemojo.com, which tracks ticket sales.. That follows on the success of "Shrek 2," which has earned $877 million worldwide..."The Incredibles," a movie created by Pixar Animation Studios, will also be released in November and is sure to generate even more interest in computer-generated films.

DreamWorks Animation has not had as much success with its television show, "Father of the Pride." The NBC show, which costs as much as $2 million an episode, had its debut on Sept. 31, with 12.4 million viewers, Viewership, though, has tumbled. Last week only 8.1 million viewers watched the show, which is based on the white lions in the Siegfried and Roy circus act in Las Vegas. That put the show in third place for its Tuesday time slot, behind "According to Jim" on ABC and "Clubhouse" on CBS. "Father of the Pride" was in production before Roy Horn was mauled by a tiger and the act was canceled....

The offering is not risk-free, analysts said, as DreamWorks Animation plans to release two animated films a year. That is more than Pixar Animation Studios, the highly successful animation studio that has produced only one movie a year in recent years.

Mr. Katzenberg will be accompanied by Roger Enrico, the former chairman and chief executive of PepsiCo, who is to be named chairman of DreamWorks. The roadshow is expected to last for three weeks.

The New York Times > Business > Market Place: After a Hit, DreamWorks Aims at Wall St.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/12/
business/12place.html

Box Office Mojo
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/