The ANNOTICO Report

Berlusconi had ignored Italian public antiwar sentiment in sending Italian forces to Iraq.

The  lack of WMDs, was bad enough, but the continuing "bungling" of the US in the "liberation" of Iraq has been a very uncomfortable  embarrassment to Berlusconi. But the US deceit, and uncooperativeness in the Calipari-Sgrena "incident", has fueled an unprecedented outpouring of  popular outrage.

Like Blair, Berlusconi also faces national elections next year.

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IRAQ

THE INCREDIBLY SHRINKING COALITION

Der Spiegel
By Siegesmund von Ilsemann
March 21, 2005

Things are getting lonely for the Americans in Iraq. More and more of their friends are leaving. But with the Iraqi army not ready to take over, it looks like US forces will have to stay for a long time to come.

Italian President Silvio Berlusconi's announcement came as a surprise to his own cabinet ministers and a snub to his friend in Washington. Berlusconi announced on Italian television early last Wednesday that he plans to begin withdrawing Italian troops from Iraq by as early as September. A comment he made a few days later -- that the withdrawal would, of course, be coordinated with Italy's allies -- did little to lessen the impact of his initial announcement: The "coalition of the willing," with which US President George W. Bush wanted to liberate Iraq, is beginning to crumble.

About three dozen countries were initially more than willing to join Bush's coalition in Iraq. Eleven of those, however, have already pulled out, while five more have announced their intention to withdraw. Aside from 150,000 US troops and just short of 9,000 Britons, there are hardly any meaningful contingents of foreign troops left in the country.

Even worse, in the United States qu! estions are increasingly being raised about American involvement in Iraq. A majority of Americans are critical of Bush's war and opposition leaders, like Senate minority leader Harry Reid, aren't the only ones calling for a withdrawal strategy.

Washington's Army Vice Chief of Staff Gen. Richard Cody announced last week that US troop reductions wouldn't begin before 2006. He also said that, if the security situation remains the same as it is now or improves, a reduction to US troop strength, currently at roughly 150,000, will begin next year.

The desertion of allies in Iraq creates difficult problems for Washington and the not-yet-installed new government in Baghdad. The Kurds and Shiites who prevailed in the January parliamentary elections are calling for a withdrawal of occupation forces. But they too are aware that option number one, the immediate pullout of all foreign troops, would plunge the country into chaos. The internal Iraqi resistance movement is too powerful and Baghdad's own security forces are too weak. The country would be at risk of falling apart without the presence of allied troops.

But the White House's current strategy of remaining steadfast until the Iraqi resistance has been defeated and the newly elected government in Baghdad is able to stand on its own two feet seems equally unappealing. More than 1,500 GIs have already died in Iraq, a number that increases every day. And although the foreign military presence seems indispensable at this point, it also fuels the seemingly endles! s wave of violence in Iraq. Terrorist attacks have already claimed the lives of thousands of Iraqi civilians. For this reason, even sworn opponents of Saddam Hussein are calling for a reduction in US troop levels.

Thus, it seems that America is left with option three, proposed by retired General D. Gary Luck in January: the gradual withdrawal of US troops from all active combat missions.

Turning security over to the Iraqis may still work. The Americans hope that an increased emphasis on training will enable Iraqi security forces to combat the insurgency on their own. But this too seems an unlikely prospect. For months, young Iraqi soldiers have been a target of choice for terrorists, and hundreds have already died in a series of recent attacks. Indeed, the mortal dangers involved in the job have already prompted many new recruits to desert as soon as they sign up. This gives US officers, like Captain John Hussey of the 25th Infantry Division, cause for pessimism:! "We'll have to stay here another 10 to 15 years if we want to get everything right."

Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan

http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/spiegel/0,1518,347507,00.html