For one thing a new law, strengthening the role of proportional
representation in the voting system, may be in place.

For another, the three main parties in Italy's ruling centre-right
coalition, which has held power since June 2001, may have merged into a
single, if loosely knit, movement , BUT without the extreme right Northern
League, the government's fourth-biggest party.

Most intriguingly of all, Silvio Berlusconi, the prime minister who will
turn 69 in September, may not even be the centre-right's candidate for
premier. He may be replaced by Pier Ferdinando Casini, a moderate Christian
Democrat who is speaker of parliament's lower house.

Romano Prodi, is the leader of the centre-left opposition, and has his own
troubles of managing a diffuse and often squabbling coalition that
stretches from centrists to unreconstructed communists, who if kept
together for the election, may fall apart soon after.

London Financial Times
By Tony Barber
Published: July 24 2005 22:14 | Last updated: July 24 2005 22:14

By next May, the latest possible date for Italy's forthcoming national
election, the country's political landscape could look very different. For
one thing a new law, strengthening the role of proportional representation
in the voting system, may be in place. For another, the three main parties
in Italy's ruling centre-right coalition, which has held power since June
2001, may have merged into a single, if loosely knit, movement.

Most intriguingly of all, Silvio Berlusconi, the prime minister who will
turn 69 in September, may not even be the centre-right's candidate for
premier.

Italy's next election campaign will take place against a backdrop of weak,
even non-existent economic growth, a crisis in its export competitiveness,
a rising budget deficit and public debt that cramp the options for recovery.

Luca Cordero di Montezemolo, president of Confindustria, Italy's employers'
association, said: “We've lost world market share from 1995 onwards. There
have been too many years of non-choices. We have 18 political parties in
this country and they talk about alliances and tactics, but not about the
real problems facing us.”

Romano Prodi, leader of the centre-left opposition, said it was frustrating
to watch Italy's economic problems pile up, with no prospect of decisive
government action until after the poll. “It would have been better to hold
the election last spring, because every day that passes is a drama for this
country,” he said last week.

Mr Prodi has his own troubles. Managing a diffuse and often squabbling
opposition that stretches from centrists to unreconstructed communists, he
plans to hold and hopes to win US-style primary elections in October to
impose his authority on the grouping once and for all.

He said this would ensure he was in a position to govern for a full
five-year term. But even some of his allies are worried that the loyalty of
Italy's far left to a Prodi government would not last that long.

It is on the centre-right, though, that the most unpredictable events are
unfolding. On Friday Mr Berlusconi's Forza Italia party, the conservative
National Alliance and the centrist Union of Christian Democrats (UDC) will
hold what they bill as the “constituent assembly” of a new movement of the
“moderate centre-right”.

It will omit the populist Northern League, the government's fourth-biggest
party. But the plan is to launch the movement with a manifesto of values,
statutes and perhaps even a different name from the “House of Freedoms”
under which Mr Berlusconi's coalition campaigned in 2001.

The reborn centre-right will craft its appeal to moderate, undecided
voters, who deserted the government in droves in regional elections last
April but who may have doubts about voting for a Prodi government too
dependent on far-left support. Mr Berlusconi wants to seal the new
movement's unity with changes to Italy's electoral system that would give a
greater role to proportional representation as demanded by the UDC.

But one outstanding question is whether Mr Berlusconi will be the man whom
Mr Prodi must beat to gain power. Mr Prodi and the centre-left have held a
lead in opinion polls over Mr Berlusconi and his government for most of
this year, but the gap narrowed in June from 49.5 to 47 per cent. Should Mr
Berlusconi gain more ground, he will surely seek another term in office.
Should the gap remain or even widen, however, the search for a new
centre-right leader may acquire momentum.

For centre-right politicians, an important calculation will be how far they
believe Mr Prodi's support comes from the electorate's disillusionment with
Mr Berlusconi personally.

If they want a more popular leader, the obvious candidate is Pier
Ferdinando Casini, a moderate Christian Democrat who is speaker of
parliament's lower house.

Opinion polls show Mr Casini, 49, is the best-liked centre-right
politician. One poll in June gave him 37 per cent support against 24 per
cent for Mr Berlusconi.

Not surprisingly, opposition leaders hope Mr Berlusconi will play into
their hands by running again for the premiership. Piero Fassino, leader of
the Democrats of the Left, the largest opposition party, said: “He's
convinced he's the best. He has a boundless opinion of himself.”

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/a2cc
8146-fc87-11d9-8386-00000e2511c8.html