Italian Elections;
Overseas Italians will decide. But Another Election Inevitable?
The
ANNOTICO Report
Currently,
the vote difference between Prodi and Berlusconi is
1/10 of 1% , out of 47 million voters, or 47,000
votes, on an 84% turnout!!!
Overseas
ballots have yet to be counted, which is estimated to be close to 1.1 million,
or 33% of those eligible.
In
the Chamber of Deputies, Romano Prodi claimed to have
won with 49.8 per cent of the vote, with 49.7 per cent for current Prime
Minister Silvio Berlusconi.
It
was a different story for the Senate - Berlusconi's alliance held a one-seat
lead (155 to Prodi's 154 seats) but the votes cast by
Italians living abroad for six seats were still being counted on Tuesday
morning.
If
the Houses are split, the government would definitely be paralyzed, unless a
Unity government is formed, unlikely with the campaign vitriol. Another
Election in November is felt highly likely. If there is even the slimmest
of margins of victory for one candidate in both houses, the winning
Coalition is granted 55% of the seats, which will make the government tenuously
governable.
The
three Articles below , represent the Comments of Reuters (very revealing), Los
Angeles Times, and Swiss News that has great interest in that Switzerland has
a 1/3 Italian influence,( with 1/3 each German and French).
Italians abroad
were allocated 12 seats (out of 630) in the Chamber of Deputies and six in the
Senate (from 315).Swiss residents are well represented among the candidates. Of
the 144 people standing for election to the lower house, 25 live in
FACTBOX-
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS IF
Reuters
April 11
(Reuters) -
A government
needs the support of both houses to take power, raising the question of what
would happen if the new parliament, which is due to convene on April 28, were
split.
The situation is
complicated by the fact that the 7-year term of President Carlo Azeglio Ciampi expires in May,
and the 85-year-old leader had been expected to retire.
But
Facing stalemate,
the two sides may well seek to persuade Ciampi to
extend his term and help
Here are some
possible subsequent scenarios:
GRAND
COALITION
The rival camps
could agree to forge a grand coalition, similar to
But few
politicians hold out hope for that solution given the bitter campaigning in
this election and the two sides' mutual aversion to each other.
TECHNOCRAT
GOVERNMENT
The two blocs could
agree to back a non-political, technocrat government as seen in the early
1990s, and entrust it with a limited number of tasks, such as drawing up a
budget for 2007, before heading for new elections.
Ciampi, who himself headed a
technical government in 1993-4, is known to support such administrations.
NEW
ELECTIONS
The two alliances
could demand that new elections be held, probably not before autumn, and that a
caretaker technocrat government hold power in the brief interim.
CHANGE IN
PARTY ALLEGIANCES
Some lawmakers in
the Senate, where the number of seats was expected to be closely divided
between the two alliances, might jump across party lines, reversing control of
the upper house.
EMERGENCE
OF CENTRIST POLE
A divided
parliament could drive centrists from both blocs closer together in a bid to
shut out the more extreme parties.
That could result
in a reshuffling of
However, few
politicians think such a centrist pole is viable so soon after the collapse of
the Christian Democrats in the wake of corruptions scandals in the early 1990s.
Of note was an
incident in
That underscored
tensions within a party that was a vital part of Berlusconi's governing
majority since 2001.
Parliamentary
Elections May Leave
By
Tracy Wilkinson
Times Staff Writer
April 11, 2006
ROME — Italian politician Romano Prodi claimed
victory early today after official tallies showed his center-left coalition had
won a majority by a fraction of a percentage point in the Chamber of Deputies,
the lower and larger house of the Italian Parliament.
Final results from the two-day vote indicated opposing factions were likely to
control the two houses of Parliament, a recipe for instability and paralysis
that could force new elections.
However, the race for the Senate was not over, and it was Berlusconi's
coalition that held a razor-thin, one-seat lead in that race. Final control
will be decided by overseas voters who select six senators and whose ballots
had not yet been counted.
Whatever government emerges, it will be weak and probably short-lived. Neither side has won a clear mandate, and it is virtually
impossible to rule without agreement between the two houses of Parliamen! t. The Senate and the Chamber of Deputies must
vote to support the prime minister and his Cabinet for them to take office.
"The country is split in half," said Giuliano
Ferrara, a Berlusconi supporter and editor of a Berlusconi-owned newspaper, Il Foglio.
"The country is more divided now than ever before in its history,"
said Communist Party leader Fausto Bertinotti, a member of Prodi's
coalition.
Nearly 84% of approximately 47 million eligible voters cast ballots....
When he became prime minister in 2001, many Italians believed he would apply
his successful business acumen to the national economy and make good on
campaign promises to spread prosperity. Instead,
If Prodi's coalition takes control of the lower house
and Berlusconi's the upper, the two sides could attempt to form a "grand
coalition," but many observers consider that unlikely. The government
could also call for new elections.
"I do not think it will be possible to govern; this is an ungovernable
Parliament," said Sen. Paolo Guzzanti of
Berlusconi's Forza Italia party. "It looks to me
like we will be voting again in November."
Special correspondent Livia Borghese
contributed to this report.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/
la-fg-newitaly11apr11,1,6529900,print.story?coll=la-headlines-world
Neue Zurcher Zeitung
NZZ OnLine
11. April 2006
Among
them are 375,000 nationals of voting age, who reside in
On
Tuesday, a day after the polls closed in Italy, results showed that the
alliance of former Prime Minister Romano Prodi had
won the Chamber of Deputies with 49.8 per cent of the vote.This
was the narrowest of margins over current Prime Minister Silvio
Berlusconi's conservative allies, who garnered 49.7 per cent.According
to a recently passed law, the winning coalition automatically wins 55 per cent
of the seats, or 340 seats.It was a different story
for the Senate - Berlusconi's alliance held a one-seat lead (155 to Prodi's 154 seats) but the votes cast by Italians living
abroad for six seats were still being counted on Tuesday morning.This
did not prevent Prodi from claiming that his allies
had won the elections outright."We have won and
now we have to start working to implement our programme
and unify the country," he told supporters early on Tuesday morning.Participation in the election was massive - more
than 83 per cent of the electorate voted.
For the
first time, Italians abroad could not only vote in home elections without
having to travel to Italy, they could also stand for election themselves.They were allocated 12 seats (out of 630) in the
Chamber of Deputies and six in the Senate (from 315).Swiss residents are well
represented among the candidates. Of the 144 people standing for election to
the lower house, 25 live in
Some
Swiss newspapers went to press as news of Prodi's
victory in the House of Deputies was filtering through.The
German-language press questioned whether the country would be plunged into
political instability.The prestigious Neue Zuercher Zeitung
described Berlusconi's election campaign as being "drenched in
poison". It added that his behaviour during the
run-up was not a form of "Italian passion" but a sign of
"desperation [as] a glorious victory lay outside his grasp".The
Tages-Anzeiger said that the media magnate had
managed to split the country with his campaign of fear and aggressive
confrontational tactics.The French-language Le Temps
stressed that it was irrelevant which alliance won the vote as the country was
already severely divided.
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