Although None of the other European Governments seem to have one
either, Italy needs a Plan to Pin Point and Encourage those Clean Industries
that Italy is uniquely equipped to Foster, that offer great numbers of high
paying Employment to a well educated population. It also needs to
Foster a plan to alter it's declining birth rate.
Otherwise,
The various Italian political factions (like elsewhere) are minutely
focused on their own petty narrow agenda, and
unconcerned or oblivious to the "greater" National need.
The current Political situation is not Volatile
as many Commentators claim, BUT more like Gridlock.
Or if you prefer, two Adversaries in a Death Grip, more focused on
Gaining Power, than Solving Problems.
Keep ALL of the Below in Mind:
1) The Wafer-thin margin of Victory in the Election of the Prodi Coalition, 1/10th of 1% or an advantage of 24,755
votes in the Chamber of Deputies, although Berlusconi claims 220,000 votes
more than Prodi's bloc, counting all votes cast in
both houses of parliament. Ultimate Result: Almost a guarantee of Inaction.
2) As in all Coalitions, in all countries, one should expect factions
of a Coalition to make and even follow through with threats to withdraw,
and or switch sides, if their requests for certain Leadership positions,
Cabinet Ministers posts, or legislation are not met, creating instability, and
possibly even requiring new elections. It has happened to both Prodi and Berlusconi before, resulting in their
expulsion from office, forcing new elections, or the "new" majority
leader being asked to form a "new" government.
3) A new Election. Oh No!
4) Members of Parliament elected to one Coalition shifting to the other
Coalition, after being "properly" enticed. In the Senate where Prodi only has a 2 seat majority (158-156), Berlusconi
already claims to have at least one "defector".
5) Prodi is not expected to take power until
the end of May, thanks to a constitutional logjam caused by the expiry of
President Carlo Azeglio Ciampi's
mandate in mid-May. Under the constitution, the president nominates a new
premier and Ciampi wants his new president successor
to perform that nomination. That keeps matters in limbo.
6) An Impotent Prime Minister/Coalition government unable to remedy the
country's "no growth" economic malaise.
7) The Uncertainty causing Italy's borrowing costs to jump another 20%,
bringing them to 33 more basis points than Germany's cost, and speculated to
rise to 45 basis points, falling below Greece and Slovenia, creating more Debt.
8) The Big Struggle to Cut Italy's Deficits, which will Require
Many Unpopular Measures, that include (a) a more Efficient workforce, (b)
cutting some bloated government, (c) trimming some overly generous
pension plans-retirement at 55, and making the Robber Barons bear more of the
share of Taxes.
COALITION STRIFE
EITB 24 -
Just two days after his
election victory was confirmed,
Opponents always said Prodi would be unable to hold together his broad alliance, which
spans diehard communists to Roman Catholic moderates, but few expected the
cracks to emerge even before Prodi had formally taken
office. The fight centres on who should be appointed
speakers of the two houses of parliament. The posts are highly prestigious and Prodi's three main coalition partners are all pressing hard
for their own candidates to be elevated.
The major tussle is over
the lower house, with two political heavyweights -- Communist Refoundation head Fausto Bertinotti and the chairman of the Democrats of the Left
(DS), Massimo D'Alema -- demanding the job.
La Stampa
newspaper quoted Bertinotti as saying he might
withdraw from Prodi's Union alliance if he does not
get the nod while the DS has indicated that as the largest party within the centre-left
coalition, it deserves the job.
"I am very embittered
and very astonished," D'Alema, a former prime
minister, was quoted as saying in left-leaning la Repubblica
newspaper. "We are giving our coalition a terrible image and the choice of
Bertinotti is divisive."
Prodi told reporters on Friday he was
working to resolve the dispute, saying all sides had promised to accept his
decision. "It is not going to be a difficult decision, even if it is
obviously going to be a painful one," said Prodi,
whose previous term as prime minister ended after just two years in 1998 when Bertinotti turned against him.
Adding to Prodi's woes, the head of another small coalition party,
the centrist Democratic Union for Europe (UDEUR), said he was unhappy with the
centre-left leader's first steps and threatened to quit the alliance unless
things changed quickly. Clemente Mastella, in a
pugnacious interview in the Roman Catholic daily Avvenire,
did not spell out what his demands were, but other newspapers speculated that
he was seeking to be named either upper house speaker or defence
minister.
The new parliament
convenes on April 28 and will almost immediately set to work on choosing the
two speakers. Whoever is put forward by Prodi will
almost certainly be elected. Italian newspapers agreed that the open squabble
over the trophy jobs was a public relations disaster that raised questions over
how Prodi will manage to bridge the divides when he
gets down to tackling policy issues.
"Leaving aside the
possible outcome, which still hangs in the balance, this is an emblematic
mess," Corriere della Sera newspaper wrote.
Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has yet to concede defeat in the April
9-10 election despite Wednesday's supreme court ruling
that adjudged Prodi the victor thanks to a wafer-thin
advantage of 24,755 votes in the Chamber of Deputies. Berlusconi said in a
newspaper interview on Friday that Prodi should recognise the centre-right's "political" victory
because it had won some 220,000 votes more than Prodi's
bloc, counting all votes cast in both houses of parliament.
"It is therefore
clear that the person who wants to be recognised as
the winner for having got more seats ... must in turn necessarily recognise the centre-right's political victory in terms of
votes," Berlusconi told the Piccolo daily.
However, even Berlusconi's
closest foreign ally, the United States, has now recognised
Prodi's win and political sources said the
centre-right leader was plotting a fierce opposition, especially in the Senate
where the left has a two-seat majority.
Prodi has tried to shrug off concerns
over his coalition's stability and is busy drawing up his cabinet list. Tommaso
Padoa-Schioppa, a former European Central Bank board
member and non-politician, is in pole position to become economy minister. The
former European Commission president is not expected to take power until the
end of May, thanks to a constitutional logjam caused by the expiry of President
Carlo Azeglio Ciampi's
mandate in mid-May. Under the constitution, the president nominates a new
premier and Ciampi wants his successor to do that
job.
Bloomberg News
Mark Gilbert
This month's vote to elect the prime minister of
Investors now charge
Five-hundredths of a
percentage point may not sound like a big move. In the ossified market for
euro-denominated government securities, however, it's a clear vote of
no-confidence in
Default Risk
Credit-default swaps are
sending the same message. At the beginning of March, you would have paid 19,500
euros ($24,000) per year to insure 10 million euros of Italian government debt
for 10 years. Today, that CDS costs about 24,000 euros, putting debt insurance
at its most expensive for nine months.
Earlier this week,
..(It is) a worrisome
sign that Italian politics may be revisiting the bad old days when coalition
governments crumbled like parmesan.
Combine a coalition
government hanging on to power by its fingernails with a deteriorating economic
outlook, and you have a sure recipe for spreads on Italian debt to widen. Stir
in skepticism about Prodi's abilities to tackle
Fractured Past
``With Italy's history of
more than 50 different governments since World War II, it's hard to believe
that a government with such a tight majority will have the mandate to implement
the structural reforms demanded by the rating agencies,'' says Kornelius Purps, an economist at
HVB Group in Munich.
Purps says Italian yields might rise
above those of
Bad to Worse
Instead,
It's increasingly likely
that S&P analyst Moritz Kraemer will soon pull the trigger and cut
Euro Comforts
It's no coincidence that
Italian consumers are at their least optimistic for six months, according to
figures released this week by the Isae Institute in
The comfort international
investors derive from having their loans to
The
ANNOTICO Reports are Archived at:
Italia
Mia: www.italiamia.com (Community)