Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Berlusconi Trying to Stage Comeback in Italy
The ANNOTICO Report

Berlusconi Trying to Stage Comeback in Italy

International Herald Tribune
By Ian Fisher

Monday, November 19, 2007

ROME: With his customary brio, former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi confirmed Monday that he was forming a new political party to propel himself back to power, vowing to go forward without his allies on the center-right, who are growing exhausted with him.

Impatient that the fragile and unpopular government of Prime Minister Romano Prodi remains standing, Berlusconi appeared before reporters here Monday announcing that he had collected eight million signatures from Italians who want new elections.

"We all have the responsibility not to waste these millions of signatures," Berlusconi, 71, Italy's richest man, said at a hastily called news conference that, with blue balloons and giant video screens outside, felt more like the start of a well-financed electoral campaign. "This would be fatal."

Despite his determined optimism, Berlusconi's announcement seemed to come at a low point for him politically, and it thus seemed uncertain how popular his new movement might be. To start, his political allies, who were crucial to keeping him in power during his five years as prime minister, have defected and refused to support his new party.

"It's not even worth talking about," said Gianfranco Fini, leader of the National Alliance and a longtime ally who has launched bitter public attacks on Berlusconi over the last week.

"Propaganda," said Pierferdinando Casini, head of a Christian Democratic grouping.

Fini, Berlusconi's foreign minister, has been particularly critical about what he called Berlusconi's failed strategy in forcing new elections. Last week, Prodi survived a bruising budget vote in the Senate, despite Berlusconi's daily predictions that the government would fall and elections could be called immediately.

"Let's begin to reflect on our errors so we don't repeat them," Fini said in an interview over the weekend with La Repubblica. "Let's stop saying, 'Sooner or later Prodi will fall and we will win again without doing anything constructive.' Let's begin to put questions to ourselves: Why did we lose the last elections?"

Fini and other center-right politicians have instead been urging negotiations with the center-left on a new electoral law - something that Berlusconi had refused to consider.

Berlusconi's government had pushed the current law through Parliament just before the elections last year - and it is largely blamed, even now on the right, for not allowing a wide enough majority for any side, left or right, to govern effectively.

On Monday, Berlusconi demonstrated the political dexterity he is famous for, both repudiating his own electoral law and declaring a willingness to discuss a new one even with Prodi's government.

Specifically, he said he would discuss a proportional electoral system that might result in a "grand coalition" of the center, like in Germany. Such a new law, he said, would avoid the current chaotic fragmentation of many small parties.

"To govern a country this way is very difficult," he said.

Several converging forces seemed to lead to Berlusconi's decision to launch a new party, to be called either the Party of Freedom or the People of Freedom.

While he lost the elections last year, the margin was narrow and he has maintained a good deal of personal popularity, which he apparently believes could lead him again to the prime minister's office. Renato Mannheimer, a pollster, said that Berlusconi and his allies were favored by 27 percent to 29 percent of the voters, though he cautioned that the polls were taken before Berlusconi's allies began to flee.

The only other grouping that polls closely, he said, is the newly formed Democratic Party, formed by the fusion of two center-left parties and led by Rome's popular mayor, Walter Veltroni.

Berlusconi's call for a new party that leans toward the right, but attracts centrist elements like Christian Democrats, appears aimed at creating a rival.  But Berlusconi is also facing much internal pressure from younger leaders like Fini and Casini, who are frustrated at Berlusconi's long and idiosyncratic domination of the right.

"He is putting a kind of lid on this bottle, but the bottle is full of gas," said Giuseppe Sacco, a political science professor at the Free University of Rome. "It is fermenting very much."

Berlusconi first announced the new party on Sunday in northern Italy, and it came as a surprise to many of his collaborators. Center-left leaders have largely dismissed it as an admission of weakness from Berlusconi at a difficult time.

Prodi said he was unperturbed.

"Despite Berlusconi's overwhelming media campaign," he said Monday, "my government is going forward."

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