Saturday,
December 29, 2007
English look at American "Crisis"
through Italian Antonio Gramasci's Prism
The
ANNOTICO Report
Antonio
Gramsci, the Italian political theorist, once
defined the meaning of "crisis" as " When the old is dead, the new cannot be
born". If so, then the present circumstances of
the
George
W Bush leaves the White House, formally ending what stands to be one of the
worst presidencies in the history of the Republic; his approval ratings are
stuck a little above 30 per cent. To all intents and purposes, therefore, the old is dead.
But
the excruciatingly protracted process of choosing a successor means that not
until 20 January 2009 can a
new era be born.
Bush's
old retainers are heading for the exits.Bush's power
is almost exclusively negative. Most Americans have simply tuned him out.
The
"freedom agenda" set out in the second Bush inaugural address, realpolitik and the need not to upset strategic allies such
as
Since
Most
reassuring, the prospect has greatly receded of this President going out with
the literal bang of a military attack on
Bush, who was musing about a Third World War if
The
damage Bush has wrought on
Bush's
own job-approval rating has remained lower, and for longer, than any President
for more than half a century . Not even Richard Nixon
or Jimmy Carter was as unpopular for so long.
The
King is (nearly) Dead, Long live the King !!!
The Year in Review: World politics
The
Independent & The Independent on Sunday
Rupert
Cornwell
28 December 2007
American politics
at the end of 2007 is a tale of two countdowns. Just 312 days remain to what is
shaping up as the most open, and potentially the most transformative, election
of the modern era. And just 387 remain until the victor is inaugurated, and George
W Bush leaves the White House, formally ending what stands to be one of the
worst presidencies in the history of the Republic. In the meantime an
uneasy, discontented country drifts.
When the
old is dead, the new cannot be born. Thus did Antonio Gramsci,
the Italian political theorist, once define the meaning of
"crisis". If so, then the present circumstances of the
But the
excruciatingly protracted process of choosing a successor means that not
until 20 January 2009 can a new era be born. For the best part of 12 months
the primary campaign has been in full swing. In less than six weeks, after the
so-called "Tsunami Tuesday" of 5 February, when primaries will be
held in some two-dozen states including
For the current
incumbent, the only consolation is that 2007 has been a marginal improvement on
the year that preceded it. Mostly, though, it has been a time of partings. By
this stage in any administration, old retainers are heading for the exits,
whether because of burn-out, scandal or the sense that everything that can be
achieved has been achieved, and that the moment has come for a more satisfying
"and remunerative " job beyond the White House. Of late,
however, the trickle from the Bush administration has become a flood.
The
At home, Bush's
power is almost exclusively negative. Most Americans, their
attention switching to the primaries battle, have simply tuned him out.
But the presidential veto remains a potent weapon. Having used it just once in
his first six years in office, Bush now wields the threat weekly, in the name
of a fiscal responsibility conspicuous by its absence when his Republicans
ruled Capitol Hill. Thus far the Democratic Congress has managed to muster the
two-thirds majority needed to override it just once. But this President's
grandiose second-term plans " to overhaul
the tax code, part-privatise social security and
reform immigration laws " are dead.
Abroad, the
picture is a little brighter, but only in comparison with what went before. In military and
In
Next month,
Bush will visit the
Since
But the
about-turn is no thanks to Bush, who a couple of months ago was musing in
public about a Third World War if
But the damage
this president has wrought on
As always,
however, the man himself projects a strange serenity, stubbornly refusing to
admit the slightest error. Facing reporters a day after the bombshell NIE
report, he was asked about his seemingly "dispirited" body language.
Did this mean, his questioner wondered, that he was
worried that he had a "credibility gap" with the American people?
"No, I'm feeling pretty spirited, pretty good about life," Bush
replied, maintaining that the NIE had not made him rethink his views about
But if their
President claims to feel upbeat, most Americans do not. There is a pervasive
sense that the system isn't working. The worries are many. They include,
in no particular order: the sub-prime mortgage crisis; the ever-rising cost
of energy, petrol and now food; and the growing risk of recession
and all that means in terms of jobs. The cost of healthcare and
college education far outpaces inflation, while the gap between the very
rich and the rest widens inexorably. And, worst of all, no one can do
anything about it.
Bush's own
job-approval rating has remained lower, and for longer, than any President
since Harry S Truman more than half a century ago. Not even Richard Nixon or
Jimmy Carter was as unpopular for so long. But the Democrat-controlled
Congress is faring even worse. Having lifted expectations with their sweeping
2006 victory, the Democratic majority is paying the price of not meeting those
expectations. Most glaring has been the failure to shift Bush's policy on
To be fair, the
problem is not of the Democrats' making. Legislation must pass not just the
House but the Senate, where the true majority is the 60 votes needed to block a
Republican filibuster of any contentious measure. The Democrats, however, have
just 51 votes, and only 50 on national security
issues. But the public sees just bickering, dysfunction and stalemate on
Capitol Hill, and gridlock between the White House and Congress. Not
surprisingly, the closely watched "right track wrong track" indicator
of Americans' mood is more negative than at any time since the successive oil
shock of the 1970s, and the "malaise" identified by Jimmy Carter,
to howls of national derision. Back then, the funk produced Ronald Reagan. Who
will it be this time?
On the face of
it, the Democrats ought to recapture the White House without breaking sweat.
For months polls have shown a generic Democrat leading a generic Republican by
about 50 to 35 per cent, as the issues play to traditional Democratic strengths
such as healthcare, education and the economy. If it is true that oppositions
don't win elections but governments lose them, the party of George Bush would
be doomed.
But the joy of
politics is that nothing is foreordained. For one thing, an outside event could
tip the balance - some calamity in
On the Democratic
side, Hillary Clinton's once solid lead had narrowed by mid-December. After
months in the doldrums, Barack Obama
was making up ground, both in national polls and in the key early voting states
of
The Republican
picture is even more confused. At the time of writing.
Rudy Giuliani's once-comfortable national lead was evaporating, John McCain was
making a comeback, while Mitt Romney _ who would be America's first Mormon
president - seemed to be losing ground. The sensation was the rise of the
former
But within the
next 10 days, those same
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