For
Three Reasons; (1)
Instead of fragmented coalitions, Veltroni, at the
head of the center-left "Partito Democratico", and Berlusconi at the head of the center-right,
"Popolo della Liberta"
will be running SOLO, transforming the election into a rare two party
race (2)
Veltoni, a former communist has spurned the communists,
which deprives Berlusconi of his former favorite tactic of whipping up
anti-Communist sentiment, and will have to talk policy (3) Berlusconi, with
his Debt and Legal problems behind him, but still with a large ego may attempt
on his third try to leave a positive legacy.
London's
First Global Business Magazine
Monday, February 11,
2008
MILAN (Dow Jones)--Don't be fooled into thinking that Italy is heading into just another election
despite the shocking prospect of Silvio Berlusconi
becoming Italy's prime minister again.
This
poll looks different for three reasons.
For
one
thing, the center-left and the center-right aren't
fighting the coming election as part of huge coalitions. The center-left Partito Democratico's decision is to run solo. The center-right,
lead by Berlusconi, has vowed to do the same. Berlusconi is herding his allies
under a grouping called "Popolo della Liberta'."
This is a big
change.
Instability and
bickering in coalition governments was one of the reasons why Berlusconi's center-right fell short of its reformist
potential in 2001-2006. Prime Minister Romano Prodi's nine-party coalition was unstable from the
moment it won the 2006 vote as Prodi was preoccupied
with keeping the alliance together, hobbling his administration's feeble efforts at reform.
With battle lines
more clearly drawn between Partito Democratico and Berlusconi's
new party, Italy's voters might have the rare luxury of an election
dominated by policy rather than the fudge of coalition
politics.
Secondly, Berlusconi's center-right alliance may gain less traction by
whipping up anti-Communist sentiment, its favorite tactic for distracting
voters from ineffectual government. In 1994, it was a potent part of Belusconi's
appeal. And even in 2001, one of his standard lines at his raucous political
rallies was the need to free Italy
from the death grip of the radical left.
The center-left Partito Democratico has spurned
any coalition that includes Communist parties, boding well for its own program
that won't have to pay lip service
to outmoded ideas. The PD's
leader Walter Veltroni is a former communist, but the
party abandoned its Communist roots in the early 1990s. It may yet prove
optimistic, but this might spur Berlusconi to thinking more seriously about
policy.
There's also a chance Berlusconi might change
his legislative priorities this time around. His media group Mediaset is more diversified and less in debt than it was
in the early 1990s, providing less of an incentive for Berlusconi to confuse
his personal business interests with governing the country.
By slashing the
penalties and shortening the statute of limitations for false accounting, amid
other controversial changes to Italy's legal code during the 2001-2006 government,
Berlusconi has put his legal problems behind him.
So this time,
Berlusconi may be running with an eye for securing his place in history. He's said he needed another term in office to make his
mark.
The Partito Democratico should give
him a run for his money but it's
running around 10 percentage points behind Popolo della
Liberta'
in the polls.
So Berlusconi may
well get that chance. For Italy's sake, at a time of sluggish growth and the world's biggest financial crisis for decades, let's hope he doesn't
blow it.
(Jennifer Clark
is Dow Jones Newswires' Milan Bureau
Chief, and has covered Italian business since 1994. She can be reached on 39 02
58 21 99 04 or by e-mail: jennifer.clark@dowjones.com)
http://www.thebusiness.co.uk/news-and-analysis/497931/this-italian-election-is-different-really.thtml