Sunday,
April 13, 2008
The
ANNOTICO Report
Berlusconi
has professed confidence in victory up to the last days of the campaign, Veltroni has appeared to narrow the gap, according to polls
released before a pre-election ban on publishing polls took effect. And
analysts say a crucial factor might be the undecided voters - a
significant chunk in the electorate of 47 million.
The campaign has
been uncharacteristically low-key - some say outright boring. Amid
campaigns to boycott the vote and punish a political class seen as
collectively responsible for the nation's woes, turnout will be another factor.
Italians Go to the Polls in Election that
might Return Berlusconi to Power
Saturday, April 12, 2008
The voting is
being held under a discredited election law seen as fostering government
instability. It comes amid worries of economic recession and disillusionment
toward a political class that has failed to solve the nation's problems.
A garbage
collection crisis has left tons of trash piling up on the streets of
"
Berlusconi blames
the outgoing center-left government and vows to put
His main
opponent, former Rome mayor Walter Veltroni, has
insisted on the need of generational change - he's almost 20 younger than
Berlusconi - and has promised deep reform and an ideology-free approach to
tackle the country's problems.
"We need to
turn the page" has been his campaign's mantra.
Berlusconi
entered the race as the front-runner, capitalizing on the unpopularity of the
outgoing center-left government of Romano Prodi,
whose early end forced the vote three years ahead of schedule.
But even if
Berlusconi has professed confidence in a strong victory up to the last days of
the campaign, Veltroni has appeared to narrow the
gap, according to polls released before a pre-election ban on publishing polls
took effect. And analysts say a crucial factor might be the undecided voters -
a significant chunk in the electorate of 47 million.
Amid campaigns to
boycott the vote and punish a political class seen as collectively responsible
for the nation's woes, turnout will be another factor.
"Those
Italians who are going to vote" and one big question is how many of them
will actually turn up to vote "are pretty depressed about the
situation," says Professor James Walston of the
American University in Rome. "The recent events of Alitalia
and other problems have shown it and underlined it even more:
The main
candidates propose similar recipes, both promising to lower taxes, cut
red tape and reduce the costs associated with politics, from
the number of lawmakers to their salaries and perks.
As a result of
the national mood, the campaign has been uncharacteristically low-key - some
say outright boring.
Aside from the
occasional joke on women or jab at his opponents, Berlusconi has been sober,
calling for sacrifice and not promising economic miracles. Veltroni
has called for respect among political adversaries, largely refraining from
personal attacks on Berlusconi. There never was a debate, as the conservative
leader refused it.
"Beyond the
official statements, they are somewhat aware that there's a risk that whoever
wins the election might not have the necessary strength to govern," said
analyst Pietro Grilli di Cortona.
A tricky
proportional-representation system might hamper the prospects of stability
for whoever wins - and even raise the
specter of a stalemate. The system's main flaw it that, due to a
complicated mechanism of majority bonuses, it can fail to guarantee a workable
majority in the Senate if the election is very close. (For example, Prodi, whose victory was very narrow, had a one-seat
majority in the upper house).
In a bid to win
independence from small and often troublesome allies, both leaders have
streamlined their coalitions: Veltroni runs his new
Democratic Party virtually alone, while Berlusconi is running alongside the
party of Gianfranco Fini, his former foreign
ministry, and, in the north, with the Northern League.
The move is welcomed
by analysts, who say that potentially cohesive blocs - as opposed to the
varied coalition assembled in the past 15 years - should enhance
government stability.
While Berlusconi
and Veltroni are the only candidates with a realistic
shot at the premiership, there's the usual plethora of parties trying to win
some of the 945 parliamentary seats that are up for grabs.
They include a
group of former Christian Democrats, an alliance of radical leftists, a
far-right party, an anti-abortion list. Their showing will be significant
insofar as they can take away precious votes from either mainstream bloc.
Prodi, whose last government
lasted only 20 months, is not running.
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