Before
the tournament, Italy-France was tagged as the most eagerly awaited game of the
Euro 2008 group stages. In the days prior to the match Raymond Domenech
was expected to be spitting out his usual anti-Italian snipes, while the press
would be having a field day trying to create further divide between the two
World Cup finalists.
None of this has occurred as almost the
entire lead-up to tomorrows game has been dominated by claims that, in the
other match, the already-qualified group winners Holland may deliberately lose
to Romania, a result that would eliminate both Italy and France.
The point of writing this debate was not to answer whether Holland will actually
throw the game. These things happen in football, only the naove
would deny it, what I am more interested in is whether it would actually
benefit the Dutch to knock out the two European powerhouses.
In their two matches against Italy
and Franc e, the Oranje have displayed some of the
best free-flowing attacking football that we have seen at the Euros in recent
editions, firing seven goals past two nations who are renowned for their
defensive qualities. Both Alpine countries have clearly not been at their best,
and have been penalised by, both, injuries to their
influential captains (Fabio Cannavaro and Patrick
Vieira) as well as by some poor management.
Nevertheless, should Holland really fear having
to play either Italy or France again in
the semi final? By the very high standards that these two nations set
themselves, both were shambolic against the Dutch, and although refereeing
decisions controversially went against them at critical times, their ageing
limbs simply could not cope with the youthful exuberance of Marco Van Bastens men.
Surely Holland should be more wary of Romania, a
team who finished above them in qualification, taking four points out of six,
and not conceding a goal. At t his point of time, some would say that the Oranje would be better off eliminating the Tricolorii.
For those who say that Romania
would be a walkover, there is also the Spain quarter final to think about.
If Holland, as expected, win
their first knockout encounter against either Russia
or Sweden, they will meet
the winner of the Spain
quarter-final. Surely it would be in the Dutchs interests if La Seleccion had a physically and mentally exhaustive affair
against either France or Italy. With
the semi-final coming just four days after this, Holland, having had an extra days rest
would be fresh and ready to take full advantage of the weary winner. Spain against Romania may not offer these same
guarantees.
If Hollands
explosive start can be sustained, they will be on course to go down in history
as one of the great European Championship teams. Will they really want to taint
this possible achievement with a defeat that would blotch their copybook<
/U>. Worse still, will they really want to be remembered as the winners who
threw a game on their way to glory? Just think about the doubts that still
linger about Argentina's 6-0
win over Peru
on the way to their 1978 World Cup success.
It must also be noted that winning is a habit. The Dutch have found their
rhythm, confidence is sky-high, and they will surely want to go into their
quarter final having racked up a maximum nine points. Two years ago at the
World Cup, Van Bastens men had already qualified
from another Group of Death after also winning their first two games.
They then rested a host of players in their final group game against Argentina,
drawing 0-0. The rhythm, as Van Basten himself
admitted, was lost, and in the very next match they exited the competition
against Portugal.
This could be a sign to Van Basten about making the
same mistake again.
On the other hand, you cannot blame the Dutch if they do decide to eliminate I taly and France. These are two
winning nations who know what it takes to succeed in the latter
stages of tournaments. Van Basten will surely realise that semi-finals and finals are more about mental
strength than anything else, and this is something that France and Italy posses in abundance. The Azzurri in particular are renowned as slow starters, but
they are often a different team when it comes to the knockouts.
Indeed they have an absolutely stunning knockout record in major tournaments,
with their last loss in 90 minutes dating back an incredible 22 years when
Michel Platinis France won 2-0 in the last 16 of
Mexico 86.
As an Italy supporter I will
have no complaints if Holland
do decide to eliminate both the Azzurri
and Les Bleus. At the end of the day football is about winning, and Marco Van Basten has to make a decision whether his team has more
chance of lifting Euro 2008 with or without one of these two nations still
around.