
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Markets Eagerly Buy Italian 7.7 bn
Debt
Italian government
bonds regarded as much safer bet than those of southern European neighbors.
Though Italy has the image of a country
with a lot of public debt, the present level is lower than it was 10 years
ago.
As a share of GDP, Italy's state
borrowing, at more than 115%, is the world's seventh highest - higher than
Greece's. Yet while investors were demanding a yield of 9.4% on 10-year
Greek bonds, they were content with a return of less than 4.1% on their
Italian equivalents.
Markets Happy to Buy €7.7bn of
Italian Debt
Italian government bonds regarded
as much safer bet than those of southern European neighbours, thanks to
slow improvement in public deficit
Guardian.co.uk; John Hooper in Rome
; Thursday 29 April 2010
A successful auction of Italian government
bonds today has highlighted an apparent paradox — that, while other debt-laden
southern European countries are being roasted in the markets, Silvio Berlusconi's
Italy, with the biggest public debt of all, has so far been spared.
As a share of GDP, Italy's state
borrowing, at more than 115%, is the world's seventh highest – higher than
Greece's. Yet while investors were demanding a yield of 9.4% on 10-year
Greek bonds, they were content with a return of less than 4.1% on their
Italian equivalents.
Today's €7.7bn (£6.6bn)
sale was the first by one of the eurozone's under-fire members since the
ratings downgrades inflicted on Greece, Portugal and Spain. Demand outstripped
supply by ratios of between 1.4 and 1.8 to one — better than the recent
average in comparable Italian debt auctions. "Italy has not been the big
culprit in recent years", said Giacomo Vaciago, professor of political
economy at the Catholic University of Milan. "Though we have the image
of a country with a lot of public debt, the present level is lower than
it was 10 years ago."
Berlusconi's last government, from
2001 to 2006, was plagued by scares over its finances. But since he returned
to office two years ago, his finance minister, Giulio Tremonti, has succeeded
in enforcing a more prudent approach. The government responded to the global
crisis with stimulus packages that helped keep budget deficits in 2008
and 2009 to half those of Greece.
Last month, alarm bells rang when
it emerged that, for the first time in almost 20 years, Italy was running
a "primary deficit": even before interest payments, government spending
was exceeding revenue. But there was less disquiet in the markets than
might have been expected, for two reasons: first, because Italy's private
indebtedness is lower than most other developed nations'; and, second,
because most Italian state debt is actually held by its own citizens. As
Vaciago says: "Italians don't go to the bank to get a loan, but to buy
government paper." This means that, proportionately, Italian bonds weigh
less heavily than Greek government securities in the portfolios of foreign
banks, and are arguably less easy to speculate against.
"[Italy] is the biggest bond market
in Europe and the third largest economy. It is not Greece or Portugal,"
Kenneth Broux, markets economist at Lloyds TSB said.
A Carnegie Endowment report last
week argued that the biggest threat to its public finances was the scant
prospects for growth. Italy, it noted, had lost "as much competitiveness
as Greece since joining the Euro area. Italy's unit cost of labour rose
32% from 2000 to 2009, comparable to Greece's 34% rise over the same period."
Historically, Italy has managed to
export its way out of trouble. But there are doubts over whether it can
do so this time: an EU report last year found that in the 10 years to 2008,
exports of goods and services grew more slowly in Italy than in any other
member country.
Structural reform might offer a way
out. But, like all too many other southern European politicians, Berlusconi
and Tremonti have been deeply reluctant to court the political unpopularity
such changes would inevitably bring. "Not even when you have a centre-right
government in this country do you get centre-right reform," said Vaciago.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/29/italy-government-bond-sale
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