
Sat 8/14/2010
Euro Declines as Italy Steals the
Limelight
Britain, Germany,
and France do not miss an opportunity to belittle Italy, and also use Italy
to distract attention from thier own domestic difficulties. But Italy's
Financial Status saw their Bond Auction give an Oscar winning performance
while other Euro Nations stood in Envy.
Euro Declines as Italy Steals the
Limelight
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written
by Interactive Brokers | Aug 13, 2010
A rebound for risk appetite that began
with a snap in several daily declines for Asian stocks appears to have
yielded to yet another round of dollar and yen buying in early morning
trading. A healthy Eurozone GDP report initially provided support for the
euro only to see the Italians run off with the Oscar following a dramatic
government bond auction, which highlighted the fragility of less healthy
peripheral nations.
Euro - The 1.27 bid-to-cover ratio
at today's Italian government bond auction marked a deterioration in the
attendance compared to the last sale. Today the Italians sold five and
15-year maturities and had a hard time selling it all. The poor showing
eclipsed second quarter GDP reports illustrating the significant economic
recovery that had caught so many investors unaware. However, the fact remains
that the data is now backwards-looking and the European growth recovery
has been updated in traders' mindsets. The new kid on the block remains
the lingering story of the fiscal health of debt-burdened governments.
After recovering some of the week's losses the euro's rebound to $1.2006
ran out of steam before the euro sank to an intraday low at $1.2776.
Japanese yen -An overnight dip in
the value of the yen against the dollar has also run out of steam this
morning. The dollar rose to buy ?86.18 at its strongest overnight reading
as political voices shouter louder messages to their deaf-eared cohorts
at the Bank of Japan. The central banker continues to perform market monitoring
studies to assess the impact of a rising yen and falling stock prices before
deciding on whether to act. According to the Asahi Newspaper, next week
Governor Shirakawa will meet Prime Minister Kan to discuss the strength
of the currency. The current vacillations of the yen are dependent on the
?will they, won't they? battle going on between traders wagering on whether
the BOJ dare intervene to curtail the yen's strength. The biggest deciding
factor is whether they perceive they will succeed through selling the yen.
Inevitably, official market intervention becomes a red flag to bulls wanting
to test the backbone of even coordinated intervention. For the Bank of
Japan, timing might be everything.
U.S. Dollar - The dollar has pared
some earlier strength after equity futures recouped losses following data
showing July retail sales grew 0.4% for the first monthly gain in three.
The report fails to live up to the market's growing fears of this week
that consumption is on the rocks after the FOMC said it would retain a
neutral balance sheet position through spending proceeds of maturing mortgage
securities on treasury bonds. Since the moment of the announcement,
tension has risen and markets have falling providing a life raft for a
sinking dollar. The dollar index is stalling on what would be a fifth daily
gain.
Aussie dollar - The Aussie was also
tripped up by dashed hopes surrounding Japanese currency intervention.
Investors came out on a bullish tack after Asian equity prices suddenly
turned around after four daily losses. Risk appetite was suddenly back
on the table and the Aussie spiked higher to reach 90.35 U.S. cents. However,
it later gave back around a whole cent during European hours as investors
watched the red carpet of risk aversion roll out to greet the weak results
at the Italian debt auction. The Aussie has since recovered to stand at
89.73 cents and at this price will close at its first weekly loss in three
against the dollar.
Canadian dollar - A strong reading
of new motor vehicle sales for June reminds investors of the health of
the domestic economy. Statistics released showed a forecast-beating 2.5%
gain in sales within which the report showed the strongest run of truck
sales beating passenger car sales since data was first collected in 1946.
Along with a decent reading of U.S. retail sales the report has provided
some support for the Canadian currency today at the end of a bad week.
Selling of the loonie tapered towards a three-week low at 95.25 U.S. cents
and the unit is once again higher this morning at 96.13 cents.
British pound - The British pound
rose during a relief rally to buy $1.5651 after Eurozone growth for the
second quarter was greeted with loud applause. However, the tone soured
on the reminder of the parlous fiscal health of regional governments causing
sterling to slip back to $1.5579 before recovering to $1.5603.
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